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Index / Data / 10-year breakeven

Market inflation expectations

2.35percent
DailyLatest 16 OCT 2026 1y change +0.07

The latest reading, 2.35% for 16 Oct 2026, was up 0.03 points from the previous day. A year earlier it was 2.26%.

1 year2 years5 yearsAll
10-year breakeven5-year, 5-year forward
2.02.22.4OCT 2024MAR 2025AUG 2025DEC 2025MAY 2026OCT 20262.352.02.22.4OCT 2024JUN 2025FEB 2026OCT 20262.35
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (T10YIE, T5YIFR) · Unit: percent · Updated by gov.house 17 Oct 2026 15:14 ET

Projection

No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 49 weeks of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:

Over the nextUsual move (4 in 5 cases)Range from today's 2.35
4 weeks±0.092.26 to 2.44
8 weeks±0.132.22 to 2.48
13 weeks±0.152.20 to 2.50
Based on the series' own moves over 49 past weeks. Not a forecast of direction.

A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.

About this data

Inflation expected by bond markets: the 10-year breakeven rate and the 5-year, 5-year forward rate, via FRED.

What it measures

The 10-year breakeven is the gap between ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury yields: the average inflation rate at which the two would pay the same. The 5-year, 5-year forward rate is the inflation markets expect over the five years that begin five years from now.

Why it matters

The Fed watches these closely to judge whether its 2% target is credible. If long-run expectations drift up, today's price increases risk becoming self-sustaining, which is what the Fed most wants to avoid.

What to watch

Breakevens also move with oil prices and with demand for TIPS, so short swings are noisy. The forward measure is the better gauge of long-run credibility.

gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.

Latest values

Date10-year breakeven5-year, 5-year forward
16 OCT 20262.352.33
15 OCT 20262.322.31
14 OCT 20262.352.34
13 OCT 20262.332.33
09 OCT 20262.332.32
08 OCT 20262.352.33
07 OCT 20262.362.35
06 OCT 20262.362.35
05 OCT 20262.362.36
02 OCT 20262.362.35
01 OCT 20262.362.36
30 SEP 20262.362.36
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (T10YIE, T5YIFR). Unit: percent.

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