The latest reading, 0.35% for 16 Oct 2026, was up 0.02 points from the previous day. A year earlier it was 0.54%.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 49 weeks of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 0.35 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | ±0.13 | 0.22 to 0.48 |
| 8 weeks | ±0.15 | 0.20 to 0.50 |
| 13 weeks | ±0.18 | 0.17 to 0.53 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
The gap between 10-year and 2-year (and 3-month) Treasury yields, a widely watched signal of the economic outlook, via FRED.
What it measures
How much more the Treasury pays to borrow for ten years than for two years or three months. Normally long-term rates are higher, so the spread is positive.
Why it matters
When the spread turns negative (an "inverted" curve), markets expect the Fed to cut rates, usually because they expect the economy to weaken. Inversions have preceded most US recessions since the 1970s, though the lag has varied widely and the signal is not infallible.
What to watch
A curve that "re-steepens" after an inversion has historically come close to the start of downturns, but a steeper curve can also reflect worries about inflation or heavy government borrowing.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | 10-year minus 2-year | 10-year minus 3-month |
|---|---|---|
| 16 OCT 2026 | 0.35 | 0.83 |
| 15 OCT 2026 | 0.33 | 0.82 |
| 14 OCT 2026 | 0.37 | 0.91 |
| 13 OCT 2026 | 0.42 | 0.95 |
| 09 OCT 2026 | 0.44 | 0.99 |
| 08 OCT 2026 | 0.47 | 0.99 |
| 07 OCT 2026 | 0.51 | 1.06 |
| 06 OCT 2026 | 0.48 | 1.06 |
| 05 OCT 2026 | 0.47 | 1.09 |
| 02 OCT 2026 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| 01 OCT 2026 | 0.46 | 1.07 |
| 30 SEP 2026 | 0.41 | 1.09 |