The latest reading, 2.3% for Sep 2026, was up 0.6 points from the previous month, the highest since Sep 2022. A year earlier it was 1.9%.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 2.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±1.1 | 1.1 to 3.4 |
| 6 months | ±1.3 | 0.9 to 3.6 |
| 12 months | ±1.5 | 0.7 to 3.8 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
12-month change in the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (manufacturing, mining and utilities), via FRED.
What it measures
The real output of US factories, mines and utilities, compiled monthly by the Federal Reserve.
Why it matters
Bringing manufacturing back to the United States is a central aim of tariff and industrial policy, from the CHIPS Act to Section 232 duties. This is the official yardstick for whether output is actually rising.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Industrial production index |
|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 2.3 |
| AUG 2026 | 1.6 |
| JUL 2026 | 1.3 |
| JUN 2026 | 1.5 |
| MAY 2026 | 1.7 |
| APR 2026 | 1.4 |
| MAR 2026 | 0.7 |
| FEB 2026 | 0.8 |
| JAN 2026 | 1.0 |
| DEC 2025 | 1.2 |
| NOV 2025 | 1.8 |
| OCT 2025 | 1.8 |