The latest reading, 6.3% for Sep 2026, was up 0.7 points from the previous month. A year earlier it was 3.7%.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 6.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±2.4 | 3.9 to 8.7 |
| 6 months | ±3.1 | 3.2 to 9.4 |
| 12 months | ±4.0 | 2.3 to 10.3 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
12-month change in US retail and food services sales, seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for inflation, from the Census Bureau via FRED.
What it measures
Sales at stores, restaurants, gas stations and online retailers, from the Census Bureau's monthly survey. The figures are in current dollars, so part of any rise is simply higher prices; compare with CPI inflation.
Why it matters
Consumer spending is about two-thirds of the economy, and retail sales are the earliest monthly read on it. They show how households are responding to inflation, tariffs, tax refunds and job conditions.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Retail and food services sales |
|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 6.3 |
| AUG 2026 | 5.6 |
| JUL 2026 | 4.5 |
| JUN 2026 | 5.9 |
| MAY 2026 | 6.7 |
| APR 2026 | 4.1 |
| MAR 2026 | 3.6 |
| FEB 2026 | 3.5 |
| JAN 2026 | 2.2 |
| DEC 2025 | 2.1 |
| NOV 2025 | 2.9 |
| OCT 2025 | 2.8 |