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25 filesLast filed 15 OCT
Hike or hold on Oct. 28: the Warsh Fed’s harder second decision
September's rate increase was unanimous and widely expected. October's call is not: inflation hit 3.7% in September while payroll growth slowed to 29,000. Here is what the record says the committee will weigh.
Q3 GDP preview: a 3.6% nowcast meets a 29,000-job September
BEA's advance third-quarter GDP estimate lands Oct. 29, the morning after the Fed decides. The Atlanta Fed's nowcast says 3.6 percent. Hiring says something slower. Here is what to read in the report.
The Fed’s balance sheet is growing, and it is turning into bills
The latest H.4.1 shows the Fed's holdings at $6.76 trillion, with Treasury bills up $370 billion in a year and mortgage bonds running off. What that means for Warsh's plans and for 7.40% mortgages.
Your 2027 tax brackets are about to move, and by more than last year
The IRS will soon publish its 2027 inflation adjustments. Hotter inflation points to a roughly 3.2% bump, but several of the 2025 law's headline breaks are fixed in dollars and will not grow at all.
CLARITY stalled at 49–50. Crypto’s rulebook now runs through agencies
A month after the Senate blocked the crypto market-structure bill, the SEC and CFTC have three open comment dockets doing the work Congress didn't. The first closes Oct. 20.
Mortgage rates at 7.40%: the 10-year yield is doing the damage
Freddie Mac's 30-year average held at 7.40 percent, up from 6.27 percent a year ago. The $200 billion GSE bond-buying push targets the spread, but the 10-year Treasury yield is what has moved.
$972 billion of room left: the debt limit returns in 2027
The $5 trillion increase enacted in July 2025 is mostly spent. Treasury's own data show under $1 trillion of headroom, which puts the next debt-limit standoff in the first months of a new Congress.
Forced-labor tariffs face their next test at the trade court
Supplemental briefs are due Oct. 16 in the challenge to the Section 301 tariffs that replaced the IEEPA duties. The judges' three questions show where the case could turn.
USMCA wasn’t renewed. The annual review clock now starts ticking
USTR has opened comments for the 2027 USMCA review, due Jan. 12. Meanwhile, Canada faces 50% Section 338 duties and import bans while Mexico keeps negotiating.
CPI 3.7%: gasoline did most of the work, core held at 0.3%
September consumer prices rose 0.6 percent, and gasoline accounted for more than half of it. Core inflation repeated August's 0.3 percent, which leaves the Fed's October decision less settled than the headline suggests.
Stablecoin rules are late. The GENIUS Act’s Jan. 18 start date is not
Regulators missed the GENIUS Act's July rulemaking deadline, and most rules are still proposals. The law takes effect Jan. 18, 2027, regardless. Here is the docket, and the date math that locks it in.
$4.35 gas: what Washington can and can’t do about pump prices
The SPR is lending crude, the White House deferred the diesel tax and EPA is waiving fuel rules. Here is what each tool does, and why none of them reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
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