The latest reading, $-105.6 billion for Aug 2026, was down $12.7 billion from the previous month, the lowest since Mar 2025. A year earlier it was $-59.6 billion.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's -105.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±23.4 | -129.0 to -82.1 |
| 6 months | ±30.0 | -135.6 to -75.6 |
| 12 months | ±38.4 | -144.0 to -67.2 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
The US balance of trade in goods and services, seasonally adjusted, from the Census Bureau and BEA, via FRED. Negative values are deficits.
What it measures
US exports minus imports of goods and services each month. A negative number is a trade deficit.
Why it matters
Reducing the deficit is a stated goal of current tariff policy. Monthly figures swing as importers rush to beat tariff deadlines or run down inventories, so the trend over several months says more than any single report.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Goods and services trade balance |
|---|---|
| AUG 2026 | -105.6 |
| JUL 2026 | -92.8 |
| JUN 2026 | -71.2 |
| MAY 2026 | -75.8 |
| APR 2026 | -52.9 |
| MAR 2026 | -53.7 |
| FEB 2026 | -52.5 |
| JAN 2026 | -52.7 |
| DEC 2025 | -76.1 |
| NOV 2025 | -63.9 |
| OCT 2025 | -37.4 |
| SEP 2025 | -59.4 |