The latest reading, 4.2% for Sep 2026, was up 0.1 points from the previous month. A year earlier it was 4.4%.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 4.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±0.2 | 4.0 to 4.4 |
| 6 months | ±0.3 | 3.9 to 4.5 |
| 12 months | ±0.4 | 3.8 to 4.6 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
The Fed's own projection
Median projection of Federal Reserve officials (FOMC Summary of Economic Projections) for the end of each year, shown as ◇ on the chart: 2026 4.1; 2027 4.1; 2028 4.1.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, via FRED, released 16 Sep 2026. Updated after each quarterly projection meeting.
About this data
The civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, from the BLS Current Population Survey (the household survey in the monthly jobs report).
What it measures
The share of people in the labor force who are without a job and actively looking for one, from a monthly survey of about 60,000 households.
Why it matters
It is one half of the Fed's dual mandate, alongside stable prices, and the clearest signal of whether the economy is entering a downturn. Under the Sahm rule, a rise of half a point in the three-month average from its low of the previous year has historically signalled the early months of a recession.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 4.2 |
| AUG 2026 | 4.1 |
| JUL 2026 | 4.1 |
| JUN 2026 | 4.2 |
| MAY 2026 | 4.3 |
| APR 2026 | 4.3 |
| MAR 2026 | 4.3 |
| FEB 2026 | 4.4 |
| JAN 2026 | 4.3 |
| DEC 2025 | 4.4 |
| NOV 2025 | 4.5 |
| SEP 2025 | 4.4 |