The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index for final demand (series WPSFD4, seasonally adjusted) rose to 159.780 in September from 157.662 in August, a gain of 1.3 percent in a single month. Against September 2025’s reading of 150.245, the index is up 6.3 percent. Both changes are computed by gov.house from the index levels in the BLS public data API.
Consumer prices ran hot too, just slower. The CPI-U all-items index, seasonally adjusted, rose to 336.298 from 334.131, about 0.65 percent, and stands 3.7 percent above a year earlier. Producer prices are rising at roughly twice the consumer pace on the month and lead by 2.6 percentage points on the year. This file follows gov.house’s CPI file by two days and comes 12 days before the Federal Open Market Committee decides on Oct. 28.
1. The month-by-month record
| Month | PPI final demand index | PPI, monthly change | CPI-U index | CPI-U, monthly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2026 | 159.780 | +1.3% | 336.298 | +0.6% |
| Aug. 2026 | 157.662 | +0.5% | 334.131 | +0.4% |
| July 2026 | 156.924 | +0.2% | 332.813 | +0.1% |
| June 2026 | 156.683 | −0.1% | 332.568 | −0.4% |
| May 2026 | 156.874 | +0.5% | 333.979 | +0.5% |
| Apr. 2026 | 156.061 | +1.1% | 332.407 | +0.6% |
| Mar. 2026 | 154.393 | +0.8% | 330.293 | +0.9% |
| Feb. 2026 | 153.204 | +0.5% | 327.460 | +0.3% |
| Jan. 2026 | 152.468 | +0.6% | 326.588 | +0.2% |
| Dec. 2025 | 151.592 | +0.4% | 326.031 | +0.3% |
| Nov. 2025 | 151.054 | +0.4% | 325.063 | n/a |
| Oct. 2025 | 150.439 | +0.1% | unavailable | n/a |
| Sept. 2025 | 150.245 | +0.6% | 324.245 | +0.3% |
September’s 1.3 percent is the largest monthly producer gain in the table, ahead of April’s 1.1 percent. June was the only monthly decline, a 0.1 percent dip that coincided with a 0.4 percent drop in consumer prices. Since then, producer prices have climbed in each of the three months, by 2.0 percent in total, against 1.1 percent for the CPI.
Measured from December, the split is similar: producer prices are up 5.4 percent in nine months, consumer prices 3.1 percent. On a 12-month basis, the PPI accelerated from 5.6 percent in August to 6.3 percent in September, while the CPI moved from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent. The consumer figures here come from the seasonally adjusted index; the 3.7 percent matches the headline BLS reported for September.
2. What the API does not say
The API series is a single line of index levels. It carries no release date and no component detail: no split between goods and services, no energy, no food. That means this file cannot say how much of September’s 1.3 percent came from fuel, however tempting the inference. On the consumer side, gov.house found that gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s CPI increase while core prices rose 0.3 percent, against a backdrop of $4.35 gasoline. Whether the producer index tells the same story is a question for the component tables in the full BLS release.
The latest numbers are also provisional. The API flags June through September with the same footnote:
Preliminary. All indexes are subject to monthly revisions up to four months after original publication.
EXCERPT · BLS public data API, series WPSFD4, footnote code P
3. Pipeline pressure, read as analysis
The usual argument for watching producer prices is that they sit upstream: what sellers receive today can show up in what households pay later. A 6.3 percent producer index beside a 3.7 percent consumer index suggests costs are building somewhere between the two. That gap can close in three ways. Consumer prices can catch up as businesses pass costs through, margins can absorb the difference, or producer prices can reverse if whatever drove September fades.
Producer prices are up 6.3 percent in a year. Consumers have seen 3.7. Someone is absorbing the difference, for now.
The record this year counsels against reading the link as mechanical. April’s 1.1 percent producer jump was followed by a 0.5 percent CPI rise in May and a 0.4 percent CPI decline in June. The PPI final demand index also covers sales that never reach a household budget directly, such as exports and purchases by government. The more likely reading is that some pass-through is under way, with its size hinging on September’s composition, which this series does not reveal.
For the Fed, the print feeds both sides of the argument laid out in gov.house’s October FOMC preview. Officials who favor moving now get another sign that inflation pressure is broadening up the supply chain. Officials who prefer to wait can point out that the number is preliminary, uncomposed in this data and arriving alongside payroll growth of 29,000.
4. What to watch
- Oct. 28: FOMC rate decision and statement.
- Oct. 29: BEA’s advance third-quarter GDP estimate and PCE inflation, covered in gov.house’s Q3 GDP preview.
- Nov. 6: Employment Situation for October from BLS.
- Nov. 10: October CPI, the first CPI reading after this producer print and a test of pass-through.
- Revisions: June through September PPI values remain open to revision for up to four months after original publication, so the 1.3 percent is not final.
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