The latest reading, 3.7% for Sep 2026, was up 0.3 points from the previous month. A year earlier it was 3.0%.
Projection
gov.house's statistical projection for this series, with the range that has contained about 80% of outcomes in our backtests. In those backtests it was 29% more accurate than assuming no change.
| Horizon | Period | All items | 80% range | Core (ex. food and energy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | DEC 2026 | 4.2 | 3.6 to 4.8 | 3.0 (2.6–3.4) |
| 6 months | MAR 2027 | 4.3 | 3.4 to 5.1 | 3.2 (2.5–3.8) |
| 12 months | SEP 2027 | 4.0 | 2.8 to 5.3 | 3.1 (2.1–4.2) |
Backtest: 48 rolling forecast origins. Average miss at 12 months: 1.02 (no-change: 1.18).
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
The Fed's own projection
The Fed projects PCE inflation, a different measure that usually runs a little below CPI (see PCE inflation). Its median projection for the fourth quarter: 2026 3.7%; 2027 2.3%; 2028 2.1%.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, via FRED, released 16 Sep 2026. Updated after each quarterly projection meeting.
About this data
12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), not seasonally adjusted, computed by gov.house from the BLS index levels. Core excludes food and energy.
What it measures
How much the prices of a basket of goods and services bought by urban consumers have risen over the past year. Core inflation strips out food and energy, whose prices swing the most.
Why it matters
CPI sets the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security, the inflation adjustment of tax brackets and the payout on TIPS. It is the inflation figure most Americans hear about, though the Fed targets the PCE index.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | All items | Core (ex. food and energy) |
|---|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| AUG 2026 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| JUL 2026 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| JUN 2026 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| MAY 2026 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| APR 2026 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| MAR 2026 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| FEB 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| JAN 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| DEC 2025 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| NOV 2025 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| SEP 2025 | 3.0 | 3.0 |