The latest reading, $1.99 trillion for Sep 2026, was up $0.22 trillion from the previous month, the highest since Apr 2025. A year earlier it was $1.78 trillion.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 1.99 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±0.30 | 1.69 to 2.29 |
| 6 months | ±0.39 | 1.60 to 2.38 |
| 12 months | ±0.51 | 1.49 to 2.50 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
The federal budget deficit over the latest 12 months, summed by gov.house from the Treasury's Monthly Treasury Statement, via FRED.
What it measures
How much more the federal government spent than it collected over the most recent twelve months. Monthly figures swing with tax deadlines and the timing of benefit payments, so a rolling 12-month total gives the clearest picture.
Why it matters
The deficit is what adds to the national debt each year. It reflects tax and spending decisions in Congress, the state of the economy, which drives tax receipts, and interest costs, which rise with the debt and with interest rates.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Deficit, rolling 12-month total |
|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 1.99 |
| AUG 2026 | 1.77 |
| JUL 2026 | 1.95 |
| JUN 2026 | 1.80 |
| MAY 2026 | 1.66 |
| APR 2026 | 1.68 |
| MAR 2026 | 1.64 |
| FEB 2026 | 1.63 |
| JAN 2026 | 1.63 |
| DEC 2025 | 1.67 |
| NOV 2025 | 1.61 |
| OCT 2025 | 1.80 |