Foreign investors bought a net $300.7 billion of US long-term securities in August, according to the Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) release published Oct. 16. About $109.0 billion of that went into Treasury notes and bonds, the largest monthly figure of the four months the release shows. At the short end they moved the other way, cutting Treasury bill holdings by $47.8 billion, most of it from foreign official institutions.
The timing matters because borrowing needs and yields are both front-page problems. CBO puts the FY2026 deficit at $2.0 trillion, and Treasury’s Debt to the Penny data show $32.54 trillion of debt held by the public on Oct. 15. The 12-month numbers are the less flattering read: net foreign buying of all Treasuries came to $282.5 billion in the year through August, down from $688.5 billion a year earlier.
1. August by buyer
The release splits flows between private foreign investors and foreign official institutions. The table below adds the two columns together; totals are gov.house calculations from the release’s lines.
| Net foreign purchases, Aug. 2026 ($ billions) | Private | Official | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury bonds and notes | 90.9 | 18.1 | 109.0 |
| Treasury bills | -5.6 | -42.2 | -47.8 |
| Agency bonds | -1.7 | -2.0 | -3.7 |
| Corporate bonds | 36.8 | 4.8 | 41.6 |
| US equities | 131.9 | 22.0 | 153.9 |
| All US long-term securities | 257.8 | 42.9 | 300.7 |
Stocks, not debt, took the biggest share: $153.9 billion, about half the long-term total. Private investors did nearly all the Treasury buying. Official holders bought $18.1 billion of notes and bonds but sold $42.2 billion of bills, a net Treasury reduction of $24.1 billion for the month.
After US residents bought $21.6 billion of foreign securities, net long-term flows were $279.2 billion. Add short-term securities and banking flows, including a $41.6 billion drop in banks’ own net dollar liabilities to foreigners, and the overall TIC inflow was $199.8 billion: $178.5 billion private, $21.3 billion official.
2. The 12-month picture
| Net foreign purchases of Treasuries ($ billions) | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | 12 mo. to Aug-25 | 12 mo. to Aug-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonds and notes, all buyers | 56.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 109.0 | 484.8 | 306.4 |
| Bills, all buyers | -43.5 | -29.0 | 39.0 | -47.8 | 203.7 | -23.9 |
| of which official bills | -61.0 | -35.6 | -6.3 | -42.2 | 104.4 | -99.4 |
| All Treasuries | 13.1 | -22.8 | 35.4 | 61.2 | 688.5 | 282.5 |
Over the year through August, private foreign investors added a net $372.0 billion of Treasuries ($296.5 billion of notes and bonds, $75.5 billion of bills). Official institutions went the other way: $9.9 billion of notes and bonds bought, $99.4 billion of bills sold, roughly $89.5 billion net out. A year earlier the official sector was a net buyer of bills, at $104.4 billion.
Foreign money has not left US markets. Private net purchases of US equities reached $844.2 billion over 12 months, up from $644.9 billion, and official equity buying swung to $165.4 billion from a $11.7 billion sale. The tilt is away from Treasuries and toward stocks.
Foreign money is still coming in. Less of it is going into the government’s debt.
3. Deficit, debt limit, mortgages
The comparison with borrowing is loose, since the TIC year ends in August and the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. Still, $282.5 billion of net foreign Treasury purchases covers roughly a seventh of a $2.0 trillion deficit. The rest has to come from domestic buyers, including a Fed whose Treasury bill holdings rose $370 billion in a year, as gov.house reported Oct. 15.
The debt limit adds a second clock. Treasury’s data show $972 billion of headroom, which puts the next standoff in the first months of a new Congress. Official holders trimming bills is one of the demand signals that standoff would be read against.
On mortgages, the data say less than readers might want. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average sits at 7.40%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is what has moved. TIC reports dollar flows, not prices, and cannot separate foreign demand from inflation, Fed policy or supply as a driver of yields.
4. What the data cannot show
August figures arrive in mid-October, a two-month lag. They are not seasonally adjusted, and they swing: total net long-term flows were -$27.9 billion in July and $279.2 billion in August. A single month is a weak basis for a trend. Footnote 3 also warns that the private versus official split is subject to a “transaction bias.”
For example, if a U.S. Treasury security purchased by a foreign resident is held in a custodial account in a third country, the true ownership of the security will not be reflected in the data.
EXCERPT · Treasury, About TIC Data, Aug. 2026 release
That caveat is why this file has no country ranking. The Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities table is published separately, its figures are not in the press release, and Treasury itself says “it is difficult to draw precise conclusions from TIC data about changes in the foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets by individual countries.” TIC also excludes direct investment, which BEA collects.
5. What to watch
- Oct. 28: FOMC rate decision and statement, the backdrop for yields (preview).
- Oct. 29: BEA’s Q3 GDP advance estimate and PCE.
- Nov. 12: Monthly Treasury Statement for October, the first FY2027 borrowing read.
- Nov. 18: TIC data for September, per Treasury’s release.
- Dec. 11: stopgap funding under H.R. 6500 expires.
gov.house is independent and is not affiliated with any government body. This file is journalism, not investment, tax or legal advice. How we work: ethics & standards · Spotted an error? Corrections.