Three tariff increases are already locked into the calendar for this winter: polysilicon and solar products on Dec. 4, kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered furniture on Jan. 1, and listed drone components on Feb. 9. All three rest on Section 232 proclamations that have been signed and published. None needs a further decision to take effect.
That makes them different from most tariff news, which is about threats and investigations. These are dated obligations. Importers, builders and solar developers can price them now, and the Commerce Department is already policing the run-up to the first one.
1. The schedule
| Date | Product | Change | Signed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 4, 2026 | Polysilicon ingots, wafers, cells, modules | 15% tariff plus minimum import prices | Aug. 6, 2026 |
| Dec. 4, 2026 | Raw polysilicon | Minimum import price of $21/kg | Aug. 6, 2026 |
| Jan. 1, 2027 | Kitchen cabinets and vanities | 25% to 50% | Dec. 31, 2025 |
| Jan. 1, 2027 | Certain upholstered furniture | 25% to 30% | Dec. 31, 2025 |
| Feb. 9, 2027 | Drone components in Annex III | 25% | Aug. 13, 2026 |
2. Polysilicon: a tariff with a price floor attached
The Aug. 6 proclamation does two things. It sets minimum import prices: $21 per kilogram for polysilicon, $100 per kilogram for ingots and wafers, 22 cents per watt for solar cells and 38 cents per watt for modules. And it adds a 15% duty on the downstream products.
… on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on December 4, 2026, imports of polysilicon ingots and polysilicon derivatives specified in Annexes I and II of this proclamation shall be subject to an additional 15 percent ad valorem rate of duty, except as otherwise specified in this proclamation.
EXCERPT · Proclamation, Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and Its Derivatives, Aug. 6, 2026
Deal partners get a ceiling. For products of the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, the new duty plus the normal tariff is capped at 15%. UK products face 10%.
The detail that matters before December is the stockpiling rule. Commerce issued a temporary final rule, effective Sept. 22 through Dec. 3, that compares each importer’s current volumes with its own history and can block shipments that run “substantially greater,” according to a Morgan Lewis summary. New importers of record face fixed weekly caps unless they get a waiver. In other words, the obvious strategy of front-loading imports before the tariff has been closed off.
3. Cabinets and furniture: a delay that runs out
The wood-products tariffs date to a September 2025 proclamation. Cabinets, vanities and upholstered furniture have paid 25% since Oct. 14, 2025. The increases were first set for Jan. 1, 2026, and then pushed back a year on Dec. 31, 2025, to give negotiations time.
Effective January 1, 2027, the duty rate in clause 2 shall increase to 30 percent and the duty rate in clause 3 shall increase to 50 percent, and shall continue in effect, except for countries with which the United States reaches an agreement that addresses the threatened impairment of the national security posed by imports of wood products.
EXCERPT · Proclamation, Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products, Dec. 31, 2025
The escape hatch is in the same sentence: countries that reach an agreement are spared. So the real Jan. 1 rate for any given supplier depends on deals not yet announced. A second one-year delay is possible, as last year showed, but nothing published so far provides for one. Softwood lumber itself stays at its 10% Section 232 rate; the January step-ups hit finished goods that go into kitchens and living rooms.
The obvious strategy of front-loading imports before the tariff has been closed off.
4. Drone parts: the second shoe
The Aug. 13 drone proclamation hit finished aircraft first. Since Sept. 3, drones over 25 kilograms, models with thermal imagers, docking stations and certain critical components pay 100%, and smaller drones pay 25%. The proclamation gave a separate list of components (propellers, rotors, undercarriages and similar parts imported for drone use) a 180-day runway so domestic suppliers could build capacity. That runway ends Feb. 9, when Annex III components move to 25%.
Allied-origin products can qualify for a cap of 15% (10% for the UK), but only if substantially all critical components and technology are certified as coming from those countries or the US. For assemblers relying on mixed supply chains, that certification is the hard part.
5. What to watch
- Dec. 3: the polysilicon anti-stockpiling rule lapses, the day before the tariff and price floors start.
- December: any wood-products agreements, or a fresh delay proclamation, before the Jan. 1 increases.
- Feb. 9, 2027: Annex III drone component duties begin.
- Pending Section 232 cases: robotics and industrial machinery, medical equipment, wind turbines and anthracite coal could add new dates to this list.
- Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and Its Derivatives Into the United States — The White House · whitehouse.gov
- Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products Into the United States — The White House · whitehouse.gov
- Adjusting Imports of Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Unmanned Aircraft Systems Components Into the United States — The White House · whitehouse.gov
- Active Presidential Tariff Actions in 2026 (R49481) — Congressional Research Service · everycrsreport.com
- US Department of Commerce Imposes Temporary Anti-Stockpiling Restrictions on Polysilicon, Derivative Imports — Morgan Lewis · morganlewis.com
gov.house is independent and is not affiliated with any government body. This file is journalism, not investment, tax or legal advice. How we work: ethics & standards · Spotted an error? Corrections.