As of Oct. 2, US Customs and Border Protection had accepted about $136.6 billion in IEEPA refund claims into its CAPE system and sent about $126 billion, interest included, to the Treasury for payment. It is a refund operation without modern precedent, run through a portal that did not exist a year ago.
The easy money is mostly out. What is left falls into three groups: entries that were finally liquidated before anyone sued, importers whose bank details CBP does not have, and companies waiting on a class action that has not reached the merits. Each needs a different fix, and each moves on a different clock.
1. How we got here
On Feb. 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not let the President impose tariffs. The Congressional Budget Office puts the total collected under the struck-down orders at about $166 billion, all of it eligible for refund with interest.
CBP chose not to process that money entry by entry. It built a new function inside its Automated Commercial Environment and rolled it out in phases, starting with the simplest entries.
CAPE is designed to consolidate refunds of IEEPA duties including interest rather than processing refunds on an entry-by-entry basis.
EXCERPT · CBP, IEEPA Duty Refunds page
A single CAPE declaration can list up to 9,999 entries, and CBP says valid refunds generally issue within 60 to 90 days of acceptance.
2. The ledger
| Measure | Amount | As of |
|---|---|---|
| IEEPA duties collected and eligible for refund | ~$166 billion | FY2026 (CBO) |
| Claims accepted into CAPE | ~$134.7 billion | mid-Sept. 2026 |
| Certified and sent to Treasury (with interest) | ~$122 billion | mid-Sept. 2026 |
| Claims accepted into CAPE | ~$136.6 billion | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| Sent to Treasury (with interest) | ~$126 billion | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| Refunds on hold for missing ACH bank data | ~$1.3 billion (20,184 refunds) | mid-Sept. 2026 |
| CAPE declarations submitted / accepted | 286,000+ / 201,000+ | mid-Sept. 2026 |
| Entries covered | ~27.2 million | mid-Sept. 2026 |
| Phase III scope (finally liquidated entries) | ~$11.4 billion (6.9% of IEEPA duties) | opened Oct. 6, 2026 |
One caution on reading the table. The Treasury figures include interest; the $166 billion does not. Dividing one by the other overstates progress. Even allowing for interest, most of the principal has now been processed.
3. Who is still waiting
Finally liquidated entries. Phase III, which opened Oct. 6, handles entries whose liquidation had become final. It covers about $11.4 billion, and for now only plaintiffs who gave CBP a valid importer-of-record number by July 30 can file. Importers who never sued are, for the moment, outside it.
The class. On Oct. 8, Judge Richard K. Eaton of the Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class of importers of record who paid IEEPA duties between Feb. 1, 2025 and Feb. 19, 2026, excluding those with separate suits. As Troutman Pepper Locke notes, certification is not a merits ruling and does not order refunds. The two-year filing limit in 28 U.S.C. 2636(i) still applies.
The appeal. The Justice Department has appealed parts of the refund order to the Federal Circuit, according to Supply Chain Dive. That does not stop CAPE, but it shapes how far the court-ordered reliquidations reach.
4. What it did to the budget
The refunds hit the books fast. In its final Monthly Budget Review for fiscal 2026, CBO reported that customs duties fell by $22 billion, or 11%, from fiscal 2025, as roughly $130 billion of the $166 billion went back out between May and September. The fiscal 2026 deficit came in at about $2.0 trillion, $218 billion more than the year before.
The longer view is in CBO’s Aug. 20 tariff update. Net customs revenue for fiscal 2026 is about $250 billion below February’s projection, with refunds explaining roughly half the gap. Over 2027 to 2036, trade policy changes through July 31 add $0.9 trillion to deficits: $0.7 trillion in primary deficits and $0.2 trillion in interest. The replacement tariffs, mainly Section 301, raise less than IEEPA did.
5. What to watch
- Early December to early January: on CBP’s 60-to-90-day guidance, the first Phase III declarations filed Oct. 6 should start paying out.
- The class docket: whether plaintiffs seek, and Judge Eaton grants, a class-wide injunction that would pull non-litigants into the refund stream.
- Federal Circuit: any ruling on the government’s appeal of the refund order.
- Treasury’s October statement: the first monthly customs number of fiscal 2027 will show how much refund drag is left.
- International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Duty Refunds — U.S. Customs and Border Protection · cbp.gov
- Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 (Feb. 20, 2026) — Supreme Court of the United States · supremecourt.gov
- CBO's Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026 — Congressional Budget Office · cbo.gov
- Monthly Budget Review — Congressional Budget Office · cbo.gov
- CBP Reports Major Progress on IEEPA Refunds; CAPE Phase 3 Launches October 6 — C.H. Robinson · chrobinson.com
- Getting Duties Back: Where Recovery Stands Under IEEPA, Section 122, and Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs — Troutman Pepper Locke · troutman.com
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