The latest reading, 3.0% for Sep 2026, was down 0.1 points from the previous month, the lowest since May 2021. A year earlier it was 3.9%.
Projection
No statistical model we tested has beaten a simple no-change assumption on this series over the past 48 months of backtests, so gov.house does not publish a projection line here. What the history does tell us is how far the series usually moves:
| Over the next | Usual move (4 in 5 cases) | Range from today's 3.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | ±0.3 | 2.7 to 3.4 |
| 6 months | ±0.5 | 2.6 to 3.5 |
| 12 months | ±0.6 | 2.4 to 3.7 |
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
About this data
12-month change in average hourly earnings of all private-sector employees, from the BLS establishment survey, via FRED.
What it measures
How fast average hourly pay for private-sector workers is rising, reported in the monthly jobs report.
Why it matters
When wages grow faster than prices, workers' purchasing power rises; compare this page with CPI inflation. The Fed watches wage growth as a sign of labor-market pressure: roughly 3–3.5% a year is usually seen as consistent with 2% inflation, given typical productivity gains.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | Average hourly earnings, private employees |
|---|---|
| SEP 2026 | 3.0 |
| AUG 2026 | 3.1 |
| JUL 2026 | 3.2 |
| JUN 2026 | 3.4 |
| MAY 2026 | 3.3 |
| APR 2026 | 3.6 |
| MAR 2026 | 3.4 |
| FEB 2026 | 3.7 |
| JAN 2026 | 3.7 |
| DEC 2025 | 3.7 |
| NOV 2025 | 3.9 |
| OCT 2025 | 3.9 |