The latest reading, 3.4% for Aug 2026, was up 0.1 points from the previous month. A year earlier it was 2.7%.
Projection
gov.house's statistical projection for this series, with the range that has contained about 80% of outcomes in our backtests. In those backtests it was 36% more accurate than assuming no change.
| Horizon | Period | PCE price index | 80% range | Core PCE (ex. food and energy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | NOV 2026 | 3.7 | 3.3 to 4.1 | 3.2 (2.9–3.4) |
| 6 months | FEB 2027 | 3.8 | 3.1 to 4.4 | 3.1 (2.6–3.5) |
| 12 months | AUG 2027 | 3.6 | 2.5 to 4.7 | 3.0 (2.2–3.9) |
Backtest: 48 rolling forecast origins. Average miss at 12 months: 0.86 (no-change: 1.09).
A statistical projection, not a prediction of policy and not investment advice. How the projections work.
The Fed's own projection
Median projection of Federal Reserve officials (FOMC Summary of Economic Projections) for fourth-quarter PCE inflation, shown as ◇ on the chart: 2026 3.7; 2027 2.3; 2028 2.1.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, via FRED, released 16 Sep 2026. Updated after each quarterly projection meeting.
About this data
12-month change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and its core measure, the inflation gauges the Federal Reserve targets, from BEA via FRED.
What it measures
Price changes across everything households consume, including spending made on their behalf such as employer-paid health insurance, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Why it matters
The Fed's 2% inflation goal is defined in terms of PCE, not CPI. PCE usually runs a little below CPI because it gives less weight to housing and adjusts faster when people switch to cheaper goods. Core PCE is the single number Fed officials cite most often.
gov.house refreshes this page automatically from the official source twice a day. Figures are shown as published; recent values can be revised by the source agency.
Latest values
| Date | PCE price index | Core PCE (ex. food and energy) |
|---|---|---|
| AUG 2026 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| JUL 2026 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| JUN 2026 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| MAY 2026 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| APR 2026 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| MAR 2026 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| FEB 2026 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| JAN 2026 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| DEC 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| NOV 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| OCT 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| SEP 2025 | 2.8 | 2.8 |